If P Then Q
Lori linked the
Partial
Logic Test. I got all the questions right and wondered why they were
all the same question. I guess it explains a lot about the world that 75-80% of
people can’t follow conditional statements. I shouldn’t be surprised when I say
if P then Q and everyone blows up at me because they think I
said if Q then P.
A quote from the explanation you get after you take the test
(no cheating, please!):
One of the most interesting things about this
phenomenon is that even when the correct answer is pointed out, people feel
resistance to it.
There are a number of important implications of the fact that we tend to be
bad at the Wason selection task (and indeed, other similar tasks, e.g., the
conjunction problem). One has to do with the notion of justified belief. If a
belief is recognised to be based on defective reasoning, then to continue to
believe it is not justified. But if we systematically, and unconsciously, reason
badly, then the extent to which reason actually acts as a constraint on belief
is a moot point.
The more I think about this, the more depressing it is. It would make a
good sci-fi story, though - something along the lines of Forever
Peace, except the thing killing intelligent species would be sheer
irrationality, rather than primitive aggression.